The Panda Explained Through Nerdy Statistics
By: Craig Dickson
Giants fans love Pablo Sandoval. Giants fans love to talk about Pablo Sandoval. Especially during this off season. It's a regular episode of As the Panda Turns. The reason he is such a popular subject is partly because of his weight issues but mostly it's because he is so important to the Giants in 2010. The rap on the Giants is that a lot of the players on the 2010 team had career years that they couldn't possibly repeat in 2011. One little regression is going to put pressure on Sandoval to have that bounce-back year that so many fans are expecting and at that same time praying for.
Sandoval's woeful 2010 - and what he needs to do to get back to his stunning 2009 - has been analyzed to death (it was his divorce, he had the wrong eyeglasses, couldn't handle the pressure of celebrity, pitchers figured him out) but it really came down to two camps: Those who thought it was his weight/conditioning, and those who thought, "it doesn't matter how fat you are, you don't hit the ball with your fat. He just has a bad approach and that's that."
I don't really think Panda's approach is bad. His approach is what it's always been. He has always been a bad ball hitter. His approach didn't get worse from 2009 to 2010, but because of the bad shape he was in, he couldn't swing a big enough bat. Bad ball hitters need to reach all points in that huge strike zone they create for themselves, and Panda is no exception.
I'm not a huge advanced statistics guy, but allow me to put on my nerd hat to explain the logic behind this.
BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls in Play, tracks a players batting average only for balls he makes contact with (no strikeouts) and that stay in the yard (home runs are not accounted for).
As with his batting average, Sandoval's BABIP slid in 2010, but as it was in 2009, his BABIP remained at about 20 pts. higher than his batting average. What this means is that he didn't get worse at making contact. He hit as many balls, they just went for outs instead of hits. If you check out his strikeout rate from 2009 to 10, it's about the same - 14%. He wasn't getting out because he was whiffing.
With his increased girth in 2010, he could hit the ball, but not get his hands into a good enough position to dig a bad pitch out for a bloop into the outfield or create enough movement to shoot a line drive through the infield. Those hits usually ended up being soft grounders. Remember all those double-plays?
A slimmer Panda isn't necessarily a more disciplined Panda, but so what? He might thrive more in his natural habitat.